TREASURIES-Prices gain after recent losses; downturn intact
* Europe remains in focus, better U.S. data shrugged off* Bearish trend in Treasuries still seenBy Gertrude Chavez-DreyfussNEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices
advanced on Thursday, with 30-year bonds snapping a six-session
losing streak as a rally in stocks lost momentum after soft
earnings from JPMorgan Chase & Co and concerns about
Europe’s plan to recapitalize its banks.Retail buying also helped, traders said, with real money
accounts spotted in the five- to seven-year sector.An auction of $13 billion in U.S. 30-year bonds attracted
strong interest, with a record low yield of 3.120 percent
compared with market forecasts of 3.157 percent. That propelled
30-year bond prices even higher and pushed yields to session
lows.The bid-to-cover ratio, which gauges demand by comparing
total bids with the amount offered, was 2.94, above the
12-month average.Many had expected robust demand at the auction anyway given
how much 30-year bonds have cheapened in recent sessions. And
for some, the Federal Reserve’s buying of long bonds suggested
that these securities offered good value.Overall, most analysts have pinned Thursday’s gains in the
Treasury market on the slide in stocks and any caution that has
resurfaced could be short-lived.”What we’re seeing is a classic bond market response to
modest equity market weakness,” said Jonathan Lewis, chief
investment officer, at Samson Capital Advisors in New York,
with assets under management of $7.7 billion.”This is a stocks down, bonds up trade, with no material
economic catalyst other than we had several days of stocks
run-up and bonds sell-off,” he added.Headlines in Europe, however, continued to attract
attention, with the latest news suggesting euro zone banks
would be given about six months to strengthen their capital
under what could be hefty recapitalization schemes.On balance, though, most investors still believe the
European crisis is under control and measures are being taken
to avert another credit crunch.While the bounce in Treasuries could carry on, the general
trend for most is still lower, with yields seen tracking
higher.”The general sense and feeling is that there is hopefully
positive news out of Europe. So it’s still a bearish stance out
there on Treasuries,” said Suvrat Prakash, interest rate
strategist at BNP Paribas in New York.”Going into last week, every few days there would be some
sort of negative news and it was just one after the other. And
now just the absence of that has allowed our nerves to calm
down a bit.”Volume in the Treasury market was $178.486 billion after 12
p.m. Eastern time (1600 GMT), about 15 percent higher than the
20-day moving average for that time of $155.535 billion, ICAP
said.The Treasury market, meanwhile, shrugged off a weekly
jobless claims report that many saw as a faintly positive sign
for the economy, which would normally spur selling in
Treasuries.New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits edged downward
last week, according to a government report on Thursday that
pointed to a modest improvement in the labor market at the
start of the fourth quarter.In late afternoon trading, the benchmark 10-year Treasury
note was up 11/32 in price, last yielding 2.18
percent, down 4 basis points from Wednesday.The 30-year bond rose 1-3/32 in price, yielding
3.14 percent, down five basis points from 3.19 percent at
Wednesday’s close.Market attention has now shifted to nearby resistance at
3.20 percent, analysts said, corresponding to a series of lows
in price that formed between Sept. 6-16.RBC Capital Market’s chief technical strategist George
Davis said a daily close above 3.20 percent would confirm the
market’s bearish view on U.S. debt, exposing the 38.2 percent
Fibonacci retracement of the July-October decline in yields at
3.35.